Tuesday, January 27, 2004

Sources say...


Kerry 36, Dean 31, Edwards 12, Clark 12.
According to Rich Lowry as cited by Drudge.

UPDATE: Well, eventually, the real votes got counted and it is a Kerry blowout. As of 8:25 (PST), Kerry got 39%, Dean 26%, Clark 13%, Edwards 12%, Lieberman 9%. My predictive skills (see below a few posts) weren't too good. I figured the Kerry margin of victory would be 9%... wrong. I also figured Edwards would do better (wrong again) being the recepticle of the anyone but Kerry sentiment. I was on target about Lieberman! And I got the level of support for Dean about right.

Lieberman is done. Clark bet on a strong showing in NH after skipping out on Iowa. He needs to do better to justify going on. My estimation is that without a win in the next batch of contests he too is done. Edwards and Dean will slug it out for the title of Challenger to Kerry. Edwards is more telegenic but Dean has organization. But both must get a win somewhere... anywhere. If they don't there will be calls for them to drop out so Kerry can fund raise like mad to be ready for the Fall Campaign against Bush. Once again, the nomination process may well be quite over before the voting in the California primary.

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