Monday, January 26, 2004

New Hampshire Primary


Polling is all over the place. Zogby and Survey USA have the race tight while CNN/Gallup and ARG are forecasting blowouts.

My take: Kerry edges out Dean by a few percentage points. But the main story line will be Dean claiming himself the comeback kid just like Kerry did in Iowa. My feeling is that Kerry's bounce topped out and when the voters really think about it the wavering ones will back off supporting Kerry. Kind of a mass psychology buyer's remorse.

Dean supporters will rally back to him and I'm sure some undecideds will feel Dean got a raw deal from the media endless loop replay of the Iowa howling and will back him just to send a message. I'm also guessing that Lady Doctor Dean has been a positive factor in the campaign.

Meanwhile, I think Clark is done with his numbers falling and Edwards rising. They will criss-cross with Edwards taking the coveted 3rd spot positioning himself to make a break out in South Carolina. I get the impression that Clark looked good initially capitalizing on his military credentials but I hate to say it, I think too many Democrats in the end probably distrust the military too much to vote en mass for Clark.

Edwards playing the role of the happy warrior is playing well while Dean and Kerry slug it out.

And finally, poor Joe. He is the only one I'd trust on national security issues of the lot and he will be the next to join Gephardt on the sidelines.

Forecast:
Kerry 34
Dean 30
Edwards 15
Clark 9
Lieberman 8

UPDATE (Tuesday 7:30AM PST): Zogby's final poll backs off on a Dean comeback. If indeed the Dean rebound is done then the anyone but Kerry people will gravitate to Edwards.

Kerry 33
Dean 24
Edwards 21
Clark 9
Lieberman 8

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