Al-Qaeda October Surprise?


One has to wonder what UBL and his braintrust have in store. It is likely that they carried off the major terrorist strike just before the Spanish elections so that the Spanish people would vote out the incumbent party supportive of participation in Iraq.

Al-Qaeda has to be eyeing the US November elections.

Kerry is making noises in his speeches that he would be tough on terrorism and the opposition in Iraq. However, would a President Kerry stick to that if there were to be more casualties in Iraq? When more deaths occur, would he be able to resist the wing of his party that wants to pull the troops out of Iraq?

Al-Qaeda has to make a political calculation about the US elections: would a terrorist strike on American soil help or hurt Kerry's chances to become president?

If the attack is foiled or partially foiled or of relatively small impact, would that strengthen Bush's re-election? What if a large attack proves successful, would the US rally behind Bush or be like Spain and vote him out?

UBL also has to consider the possibility that doing nothing maybe the better strategy for his war on the infidels. As the American public thinks the terrorist threat has receded, they may toss Bush out like the way the British voted out Churchill after WW2?

If they opt for an attack, what would it be? And where?

Living out here in Los Angeles, do we have the same sense of urgency like NY and DC? Would our city be ready? One wonders...

But just as the people of Israel live with daily threats and go on about their lives, we must to.

Let's give a shout out to the brave men and women of the armed forces and various other law enforcement and emergency responders and un-heralded analysts working behind the scenes trying to keep us safe.

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