News: is the Al-Zarqawi death a tipping point?

Been listening to news analysis of the operation that killed Al-Zarqawi.

There seems to be two broad categories of reactions: (1) this is a positive step for the future of Iraq and (2) it means almost nothing.

The commentators who say it means nothing speculate that Al-Zarqawi doesn't really command that many terrorists in Iraq. One believed that just 10% of the insurgency was under the direct control of Al-Zarqawi and that he is easily replaced. Another proposed the idea that rival factions may have provided the information to get Al-Zarqawi killed to improve their own standing within the rebellion. Another thought that the USA made Al-Zarqawi into a straw man to put a public face onto the enemy and so killing a straw man means nothing.

The analysts who are more sanguine about this latest turn of events suggest that leadership within the Sunni population decided the prospect of never ending civil war with the Shiites was unpalatable. Thus, to hasten the end of the civil war it was time to take down the most polarizing figure fomenting Sunni-Shia violence.

Hussein's sons were killed in a gun battle in a town, Hussein was captured near a town and Al-Zarqawi was killed in a town. UBL is hidden in remote regions of the Afghan-Pakistani border, a completely different environment. Terrorists in Iraq have been moving about in populated areas. As such they have had to have tacit approval of the Sunni leadership in those towns. Thus, Al-Zarqawi's death was only made possible by some insider information. The question is what was the motive of the sources that gave him up? Rubbing out a rival rebel leader? Or a decision to take down the insurgency?

The next few months could be very crucial. If it is the Sunni leadership deciding civil war is a bad idea then Sunni terrorist cell leaders will find themselves on the run because they won't know if the "safe house" is truly safe.

On other hand, if the leaked information was simply to get Al-Zarqawi out of the way then we will continue to see slaughter in Iraq.