Thursday, January 11, 2007

World: Last chance for Iraq?

I caught part of President Bush's speech to the nation regarding Iraq.

Almost all the instant analysis I heard on the TV, in this case Newshour, was not hopeful. David Brooks was the most optimistic and the best he could muster was maybe we have a bit less than a 50-50 chance to pull this thing off.

The consensus was that if the Iraqis just want to fight each other than there is little the US can do about it. The reality is that the US military just isn't big enough to bring order to Iraq on its own.

There are military, economic and ideological factors in Iraq. Militarily, the US could "win" the war (send in the B-52s) but there would be no country left. Economically, the biggest concern has to be coming up with a viable oil revenue sharing plan for the various factions in Iraq. However, the question is this: let us say a fair and realistic plan for oil money sharing is drawn up ... will the Kurds, Sunni and Shia still fight each other for ideological reason?

If the answer to that question is YES then Iraq is truly lost.

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