Politics: Brokered Convention?

You have to remember in the general election for president, the key is the electoral college.

In the nomination race, the key is the delegate count.

In the modern era of presidential nomination races, the brokered convention hasn't happened. Usually, one candidate wins enough primaries and caucuses such that the old style deal making in smoke filled room isn't needed.

Will this year be different?

On the Democratic side, it is a remote possibility. My feeling is that something has got to give. Eventually, Clinton or Obama will have a breakthrough moment. Obama's biggest liability is inexperience and if at some point that factor rises above the novelty of his candidacy his support will wane. However, Clinton's biggest liability is her biggest asset, the Clinton brand name. They were playing it pretty safe hoping to run out the clock and coast to a victory. Now, they realize they are in a battle and are now blasting away. Its a delicate balancing act when you go negative. Do it enough to drive up the other guy's negatives or overdo it and become unseemly.

The Edward's factor is unlikely to be significant. He probably won't win enough delegates to play third place king/queen maker at the convention.

Meanwhile on the Republican side, the race is now down to four players: Romney, Huckabee, McCain and Guiliani.

Thompson is out and he probably won't endorse anyone and he doesn't have enough delegates to really matter.

Paul is running a protest campaign so he stays in but really won't matter.

Guiliani can probably survive a narrow loss in Florida but must collect some delegates at Super Duper Tuesday or he is done.

McCain has the national name recognition to go the distance but he needs to reload on cash.

Huckabee from what I hear is nearly out of cash. He will stick it out until Super Duper Tuesday but baring a surprise win somewhere, he may cease active campaigning and hang onto his delegates in the hopes for a brokered convention where he could play kingmaker.

Romney can pump in his own cash and may get the nomination simply because everyone ran out of cash!

As expected Super Duper Tuesday is the key. If there are 3 viable candidates still on the field then a brokered convention is likely.

The fourth place finisher in Florida is going to have problems and may limp into Super Duper Tuesday to get finished off.

Of course, prediction about this year's campaign has been difficult!

UPDATE: If the latest GOP polling data from Florida is right, the brokered convention scenario is less likely. A 4th place finish in Florida would put a candidate in serious trouble and Huckabee who is already on the ropes is in 4th place. A 3rd place finish for Giuliani who bet on the Florida strategy would be trouble and at the moment, he is a pretty distant 3rd. McCain and Romney are running a strong #1 and #2 in Florida and it may well be just the two of them the rest of the way in which case a brokered convention is unlikely as someone is bound to deliver a knockout. So the GOP has to decide whether to go with the more moderate centrist (McCain) or the more conservative centrist (Romney)?