Politics: Iowa starts it up

My favorite one stop shop for political commentary is RCP. They have daily links to various news and comment sites and strive to have a mix of left and right leaning sources.

Their poll round up is handy.

Iowa is on the center stage.

On the Democratic side the key is whether the Obama supporters will turn out. Dean was the hot candidate in 2004 but when push came to shove his voters didn't turn out. Clinton has a core of supporters as much as a core of people who won't vote for her. Her supporters will turn out. Those who wouldn't vote for her might or might not turn out to support Obama or Edwards. And of course, there is a core of voters who support Obama believing they will make history. How will they feel on the night to go out into the cold to show that support? My guess is that Obama's supporters are going to turn out unlike the Deanics!

My "political instincts" tell me it will be a virtual tie between Obama and Clinton; they will finish within one percentage point of each other. I'd say Obama eeks out a very narrow win but the spinners will say it is essentially a tie. Edwards will lag back five or more percentage points.

On the Republican side, I predict it will be a virtual tie between Huckabee and Romney. Also, within a percentage point. I think McCain will edge Thompson by a percentage or two.

So here is my Iowa Caucus Forecast!

Obama
Clinton -1
Edwards -7

Huckabee
Romney -1
McCain -15
Thompson -16

We shall see what the numbers are on January 3rd!

UPDATE: My final prediction has been entered into the Townhall Pool under rrblog ...

rrblog writes: Thursday, January, 03, 2008 4:44 PM

predictions

Huckabee 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 14%
Thompson 13%
Giuliani 10%
Paul 6%

Obama 35%
Clinton 34%
Edwards 31%