Politics: Iowa delivers the obligatory surprises

My forecast was:
Huckabee 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 14%
Thompson 13%
Giuliani 10%
Paul 6%

Obama 35%
Clinton 34%
Edwards 31%

What happened?

As of 9:18pm:
Obama 38%
Edwards 30%
Clinton 29%

Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 13%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 3%

I felt that Obama's support was real. Supporters who think they are making history will turn out. But I am surprised at the size of his victory.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, I felt Huckabee would win by hanging on. Suffice to say, I'm surprised it turned into a 9% point rout!

The road ahead?

Clinton needs a win in New Hampshire. Clinton could survive a narrow loss due to nation wide strength but their campaign will be on the edge. But another pasting like this and they are done, stick a fork in em. This was Edward's last hurrah. He needed to win or be very close to winning to keep him going. He will crater in New Hampshire and will be done.

On the GOP side, Romney needs a win in New Hampshire. If Romney can't win in a neighboring state, he is done. He can keep going due to a national campaign organization. However, two loses in the two places where he placed his bets is not a good indicator of electability and his support will evaporate. Huckabee has little support in New Hampshire but the buzz from Iowa will allow him to ride onward past NH.