Pollsters must be nervous

After the famous debacle in 2000 in Florida, pollsters must be nervous about the California situation. Go to this round-up of polls and see the confusion!

The Yes on recall numbers are from 50% to 62%. Arnold is down 5% to up 12%.

Weintraub cites a link to the LA Times to explain the disparity between the LAT and Field polls.

Excerpts:

on two important numbers, the polls differ: The Field Poll pegged McClintock's support at 13%; The Times Poll put him at 18%. More noticeably, the Field Poll showed the recall ahead 55%-40%, but The Times Poll found the race to be tighter, 50%-47%. .......

"Polling is a snapshot in time," said Susan Pinkus, director of The Times Poll. The Field Poll was conducted from Sept. 3-7, while The Times Poll was conducted Sept. 6-10.
Voter sentiment almost always fluctuates over time, so polls taken on different days almost always have different results. ......

In addition, the people surveyed in the two polls differ in some important ways.

Of the likely voters in The Times Poll sample, 38% identified themselves as conservatives. In the Field Poll, only 32% identified themselves as conservatives. That difference could partially explain McClintock's better showing in the Times survey.

In last November's election for governor, 35% of those who voted identified themselves on exit polls as conservatives. If this year's electorate resembles last year's turnout, The Times Poll would have slightly too many conservatives in it, while the Field sample would have slightly too few.

In the last election, 35% of people identified themselves as liberals. In The Times Poll sample, 34% of those surveyed said they were liberal. But the Field Poll sample included only 25% liberals. (In the Field sample, 43% called themselves moderates, compared with 30% in last year's election).

The smaller number of liberals in the Field Poll could partially explain why it had a lower figure than The Times Poll for the anti-recall vote.

Pollsters try to ensure that their samples accurately reflect what they think the voter turnout will be. But of course, no one knows for sure.

And that last part has got to be what worries the candidates and the pollsters. If the turnout numbers are totally out of whack the polls are worthless. I wonder how the pollsters did in Minnesota when Jesse Ventura won?