Will SCOTUS strike down the 9th?

Dan Weintraub links to Daniel Wiener for this analysis:

So here's what I believe is likely to happen. For the next few days everyone is going to froth at the mouth over the 9th Circuit Court's action. Recall supporters will be livid, and recall opponents will be cautiously delighted. Then the U.S. Supreme Court will step in and rule that the public interest in holding a recall election without delay, as prescribed in the California Constitution, outweighs the public interest in waiting for better voting machines. The U.S. Supreme Court will specifically note that the 2002 elections took place using the same voting machines.

But, the U.S. Supreme Court will agree with the 9th Circuit Court that there is no urgency in voting on Propositions 53 and 54, and that those should be postponed until March, 2004. Doing it in that way will take the sting out of the USSC decision; it will appear very measured and reasonable and "judicial", and will be hard to paint as just another Republican coup by a partisan right-wing court. After all, it makes it far more likely that both propositions will be defeated in a Democratic-weighted primary election. Especially for liberals who are horrified by Prop 54, that is a very big deal.

Every court up to this point has turned aside challenges to the recall because it is hard to be opposed to a process that was carried forward in accord to the California Constitution. Yet, the 9th's three-judge panel had no hesistation in blocking the recall and over-ruling the wishes of over two million people who signed the recall petition.

Given the big mess of Florida 2002, how many people really are going to mess up voting on punch cards? Yes, there probably is still some error rate but unless you have been living in a cave, we all know about hanging chads.